This One Question Can Forecast Divorce in 5 Years – According To Therapists

Gottman Institute study of 40,000 couples finds daily micro-interactions predict divorce with 90% accuracy

Annemarije De Boer Avatar
Annemarije De Boer Avatar

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Image credit: Wikimedia

Key Takeaways

  • Couples engaging with partner’s daily attention bids 86% survive long-term marriages.
  • Gottman’s research predicts divorce outcomes with 90% accuracy using micro-interaction patterns.
  • Ignoring smartphone distractions during connection attempts prevents accumulated emotional distance over time.

Forget the fights about money, chores, or whose turn it is to take out the trash. Relationship therapists have discovered something far more telling about which couples will make it: how you respond when your partner points out a funny cloud or shares a random thought while you’re checking Instagram.

Dr. John Gottman’s decades of research involving over 40,000 couples revealed the most predictive question for marital success: “How do you typically respond when your partner tries to bid for your attention?” These “bids” aren’t grand romantic gesturesโ€”they’re the tiny daily attempts at connection. Your partner commenting on the neighbor’s new fence. Sharing a meme. Asking what you think about dinner plans.

The Math of Connection

Couples who engage with these micro-moments 86% of the time stay together, while those who ignore them divorce within six years.

Gottman’s research found that successful couples “turn toward” their partner’s connection attempts 86% of the time. The couples heading for divorce? They only engage 33% of the time. This isn’t about being perfectโ€”it’s about batting average.

The methodology proves stunningly accurate, predicting divorce outcomes with over 90% precision by focusing on these split-second interactions rather than dramatic blowups.

Four Ways to Kill (or Save) Your Relationship

Your response pattern in everyday moments reveals everything about your marriage‘s future.

Gottman identified four response patterns to attention bids:

  • “Turning toward” means actively engagingโ€”looking up from your phone, responding meaningfully, showing interest
  • “Turning away” means ignoring or dismissing the bid entirely
  • “Turning against” involves responding with irritation or hostility
  • “Missing the bid” happens when you genuinely don’t notice, though acknowledging you missed something beats complete silence

The Smartphone Factor

Modern relationships face new connection killers that previous generations never encountered.

Today’s couples navigate bids through texts that go unread for hours, shared TikToks met with “mm-hmm” grunts, and conversations attempted while partners scroll endlessly. The principle remains unchanged: your daily choice to engage or ignore these micro-moments determines whether you’re building intimacy or emotional distance.

According to Gottman Institute research, couples accumulate patterns of missed connections long before anyone admits the marriage feels empty. The hard truth? Divorce doesn’t start with explosive fightsโ€”it begins with the quiet decision to keep scrolling instead of looking up when your partner tries to share their world with you.

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